Horoscopes
Daily horoscopes use statements vague enough to feel personal to almost anyone, and studies show they have no ability to predict events or describe individuals accurately.
What we know
A horoscope is a forecast based on a person's zodiac sign, usually published daily in newspapers and apps. The accuracy people perceive is explained by the Barnum or Forer effect: when given a generic personality description, most people rate it as highly accurate for themselves, even when everyone received the exact same text.
In classic demonstrations, researchers gave many people an identical horoscope while telling each person it was tailored to their sign. The large majority said it described them well. When people are asked to pick their own real horoscope out of several without knowing which is theirs, they cannot do so at a rate better than chance.
Sun-sign horoscopes also rest on shaky ground astronomically. The dates assigned to each sign no longer match where the Sun actually appears against the constellations, because Earth's axis has shifted over thousands of years. The Sun also spends very different amounts of time in front of each constellation.
Reading a horoscope for entertainment is harmless. The evidence simply does not support the claim that it can forecast your day or reveal your character.
Common claims
- My daily horoscope predicts my day.Not supported
- Horoscopes accurately describe my personality.Barnum effect, not accuracy
- People can identify their own true horoscope.No better than chance