Antarctica is gaining ice, so warming is fake
NASA satellite gravity measurements show Antarctica has been losing land ice mass since at least 2002, averaging 150 billion tonnes of ice per year from 2002 to 2023. Sea ice fluctuates seasonally and regionally and is not a reliable indicator of long-term warming.
What we know
The claim conflates two very different types of ice. Sea ice is frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface and grows and shrinks seasonally. Land ice (the Antarctic ice sheet) is accumulated snow and glacial ice sitting on the continent itself. When land ice melts and flows into the ocean, it raises sea levels. Sea ice melting does not directly raise sea levels.
For several decades, Antarctic sea ice showed a modest increasing trend in total extent, a phenomenon explained by changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation partly driven by stratospheric ozone depletion. This was never evidence against warming: the global ocean was warming throughout this period, the Greenland ice sheet and mountain glaciers were losing mass rapidly, and global average temperatures were rising. Since 2016 and especially 2022 to 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent has collapsed to record lows, apparently reflecting the accumulated ocean warming.
NASA's GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions measure changes in Earth's gravitational field caused by shifting ice mass. These data show Antarctica losing an average of about 150 billion tonnes of land ice per year from 2002 to 2023, accelerating over time. This loss is directly measurable, independent of surface temperature records, and represents a significant contribution to global sea level rise. The 'Antarctica gaining ice' talking point was always an oversimplification of a nuanced sea ice trend; it is now also empirically outdated.
Common claims
- Antarctica is gaining ice, which disproves global warmingFalse - land ice is shrinking rapidly; sea ice recently hit record lows
- Antarctic sea ice was increasing for yearsPartially true historically, but irrelevant to warming debate and now reversed
- NASA satellites confirm Antarctica is losing land iceTrue - about 150 billion tonnes per year on average 2002-2023